تحلیل مسیر پیش‎بینی نگرش به ازدواج براساس میزان درآمد و تحصیلات با اثر تعدیل‎کنندگی مناسک دینی

Extended Abstract
 
Introduction and Objectives: Marriage is one of the most fundamental social institutions and plays a crucial role in structuring individual and collective life. Individuals’ attitudes toward marriage are among the key determinants of their intentions and decisions regarding family formation. According to the Theory of Planned Behavior, attitudes constitute one of the core components shaping behavioral intentions and influence the likelihood of engaging in behaviors such as partner selection and entering marital life (Ajzen, 1985). Simultaneously, Social Exchange Theory posits that people approach marriage as a process involving an evaluation of costs and benefits, in which socioeconomic factors—particularly income and education—guide these evaluations (Roeckelein, 2018). In a society such as Iran, where religion and religious values hold a central position in the normative and meaning-making system, religious rituals represent an important dimension of religiosity that may help explain variations in attitudes toward marriage. Adherence to religious rituals may strengthen marriage-supportive norms and foster more positive attitudes while reducing pessimistic views of marriage. Nevertheless, the combined role of structural factors such as income and education alongside religious capital in shaping attitudes toward marriage has been empirically understudied. The present study aimed to predict attitudes toward marriage based on income and educational level while examining the moderating role of religious rituals through a path analysis framework among adults residing in Tehran.
Method: This applied study employed a descriptive–correlational design using a cross-sectional survey. The statistical population included all adults living in Tehran in 2024. Due to time and access limitations, convenience sampling was used, and 273 individuals ultimately participated. Inclusion criteria consisted of adulthood, having experience or potential capacity to make decisions regarding marriage, and willingness to participate. Data were collected using three instruments:

The Attitude Toward Marriage Questionnaire (Nilforooshan, 2013), measuring optimistic, pessimistic, realistic, and idealistic dimensions of marital attitudes.
The Glock and Stark Religiosity Inventory (Khodayarifard, 2010), with emphasis on the ritualistic dimension assessing adherence to religious practices.
A demographic information form recording age, gender, education, and income.

All questionnaires were completed through self-report after providing informed consent and assuring confidentiality. After initial screening and data cleaning, descriptive statistics were calculated to characterize the sample and study variables. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to examine bivariate relationships among income, education, religious rituals, and marital attitude dimensions. Hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to test the predictive roles of income, education, religious rituals, and their interaction terms. Finally, path analysis within a structural equation modeling framework was applied to estimate direct and indirect effects and evaluate the overall model. Statistical significance was set at 0.05.
Results: Descriptive findings indicated that participants varied substantially in educational level, income, and degree of adherence to religious rituals. Pearson correlations revealed a significant relationship between religious rituals and overall attitudes toward marriage: higher adherence to rituals was associated with stronger optimistic attitudes and weaker pessimistic attitudes. In contrast, income showed no significant correlation with most attitude dimensions, and its coefficients were generally nonsignificant.
Hierarchical regression results demonstrated that, controlling for demographic variables, religious rituals emerged as the strongest predictor of marital attitudes, accounting for a substantial portion of the variance in both optimistic and pessimistic attitudes. Educational level predicted lower pessimistic attitudes but played only a limited role in other attitude dimensions. Income did not exhibit significant explanatory power and was excluded from several final models.
Path analysis findings confirmed significant direct effects of religious rituals on marital attitudes, with positive effects on optimistic attitudes and negative effects on pessimistic attitudes. Direct paths from income to marital attitudes were mostly nonsignificant. Educational level showed a significant negative association with pessimistic attitudes but was less influential in predicting optimistic attitudes. Tests of interaction effects (Religious Rituals × Income and Religious Rituals × Education) indicated that religious rituals did not significantly moderate the relationships between socioeconomic indicators and marital attitudes, as all interaction terms were statistically nonsignificant at the 0.05 level.
Discussion and Conclusion: Overall, the findings suggest that within Iran’s religious–cultural context, religious capital—particularly adherence to religious rituals—plays a more prominent role than socioeconomic indicators such as income and education in explaining attitudes toward marriage. Religious rituals strengthen optimistic attitudes and reduce pessimistic views regarding marriage, creating a more favorable psychological and value-based environment for marital intentions. Income and education contribute only modestly, primarily by reducing pessimistic attitudes. The nonsignificant interaction effects indicate that religious rituals operate more as an independent predictor rather than a moderator of the relationship between socioeconomic factors and marital attitudes.
From a theoretical perspective, these findings align with the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1985), as religious rituals can be considered part of normative and control beliefs that shape attitudes toward a behavior (marriage). Regular performance of religious practices places individuals within a framework of religious meanings in which marriage is viewed not merely as a social contract but as a recommended and valued act. Within such a framework, optimistic attitudes (emphasizing the positive functions of marriage) are strengthened, while pessimistic attitudes (emphasizing costs and conflicts) are weakened. The findings are also consistent with a religious reading of Social Exchange Theory (Roeckelein, 2018): while economic and human resources (income and education) may frame marriage as a costly transaction, religiosity and religious rituals create a form of “spiritual capital” that elevates the non-material benefits of marriage (peace, spiritual reward, legitimacy of emotional and sexual relations, and meaning in life), thereby shifting the individual’s view of marriage from a purely economic framework to a value-based and spiritual one (Karami, 2014; Hezrati et al., 2020).
The finding that education was associated with lower pessimistic attitudes, though not with other attitude dimensions, suggests that higher education may contribute to more informed and balanced views of marriage, reducing extreme pessimism without necessarily fostering naive optimism or idealism. This partial finding aligns with studies showing that education can have dual effects—promoting both individualism and critical thinking, while also providing access to communication skills and psychological resources that moderate extreme views (Yousef, 2013; Niazi et al., 2015; Sabbaghi et al., 2017; Fuller, 2015; Sonkaya, 2024). The lack of a significant role for income in predicting marital attitudes challenges some previous research and may reflect the nature of the income measure used (personal income rather than household income or perceived economic security), or the possibility that in contexts of widespread economic pressure, relative differences in personal income exert less influence on attitudes shaped by shared cultural and religious narratives.
The weak explanatory power of the model for realistic and idealistic attitudes suggests that these dimensions may be more strongly influenced by psychological and familial factors—such as attachment styles, parental marital experiences, previous romantic relationships, personality traits, and media exposure—than by socioeconomic or religious variables (Fuller, 2015; Silverstein et al., 2022). This highlights a gap in the literature and underscores the need for future research to incorporate psychological and intergenerational variables.
The failure to confirm the moderating role of religious rituals—despite its strong direct effects—indicates that religious rituals operate primarily as an independent predictor rather than as a buffer or enhancer of the relationships between socioeconomic factors and marital attitudes. This may be due to limited statistical power for detecting interaction effects, the relatively homogeneous distribution of variables, or the normative strength of religious rituals in the Iranian cultural context, which may function as a pervasive meaning-making framework that guides attitudes consistently across different socioeconomic levels (Kline, 2015; Field, 2016; Tabachnick & Fidell, 2019).
Practical Implications: Given the prominent role of religious rituals and the limited role of income in shaping attitudes, marriage promotion programs should not focus solely on economic incentives (loans and housing facilities). Such policies are likely to be more effective when integrated with cultural-educational programs based on religious values, so that marriage is perceived not merely as a costly commitment but as a path for personal and spiritual growth. Since higher education was associated with lower pessimistic attitudes, incorporating “life skills” and “marriage literacy” courses at high school and university levels could help moderate extreme pessimistic attitudes (Niazi et al., 2015; Sabbaghi et al., 2017). In premarital counseling, systematic assessment of clients’ adherence to religious rituals and their spiritual attitudes is essential, as this factor directly influences positive and negative attitudes toward marriage. Counseling interventions that purposefully incorporate religious and spiritual resources accepted by couples can reduce pessimistic attitudes and strengthen optimistic and realistic attitudes toward marriage. This approach is consistent with findings from previous research in religious contexts (Karami, 2014; Hezrati et al., 2020). Structured educational programs for young couples and parents—focusing on topics such as conflict management, setting realistic expectations, and the role of spirituality in family resilience and stability—can help correct pessimistic attitudes and promote a balanced image of marriage.
Limitations and Future Directions: This study has several limitations. The sample was recruited through online networks and voluntary participation, with a majority of women and married individuals; therefore, the generalizability of results to the entire Iranian adult population—or even to all of Tehran—is limited. Future research should employ random and stratified sampling designs and include diverse groups (unmarried youth, newlywed couples, divorced individuals, etc.). Income was measured categorically and primarily based on personal income; information regarding household income, wealth, debts, and job security was not collected. Important psychological and familial variables—such as attachment styles, parental marital satisfaction, previous relationship experiences, and personality traits—were not assessed. Future studies should examine more comprehensive models combining economic, religious, psychological, and familial variables. Longitudinal and multi-wave studies are recommended to examine changes in attitudes over time and across different life stages (singlehood, engagement, early marriage, childbearing, etc.). Finally, the results of this study indicate that any policy or intervention in the area of marriage and family, if it is to be realistic and effective, must simultaneously consider economic, educational, and religious-cultural dimensions—with the emphasis that, in the studied context, adherence to religious rituals and the type of meaning-making regarding marriage play a key and determining role in shaping attitudes.